Previewing Syracuse’s Players Era Festival matchup vs. No. 2 Houston
Syracuse will look to extend its season-opening winning streak to five in its first test of the campaign versus No. 2 Houston at the Players Era Festival. Joe Zhao | Senior Staff Photographer
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Syracuse is headed to Las Vegas for the Players Era Festival, an in-season tournament now in its second year. SU’s first game is against No. 2 Houston Monday, which is slated to tip off at 6 p.m. EST and air on TNT.
Each of the 18 participating teams — which will increase to 32 next year — will receive $1 million in name, image and likeness money. The winning team will also receive an additional $1 million in NIL money.
Players Era proclaims it’s the largest college basketball tournament outside of March Madness, per its website. In which case, this will be the Orange’s most important three-game stretch since their last NCAA Tournament appearance in 2021.
Every team plays back-to-back games on Monday and Tuesday before being re-seeded to determine the magnitude (championship, third place or consolation game) of their final matchup on either Wednesday or Thursday. The Orange will play their third game on Wednesday, so long as they don’t finish in the bottom two of their 10-team bracket.
In order, the tie breakers for the tournament are: overall record, head-to-head record, total point differential (capped at plus or minus 20 points per game), total points scored and points allowed. Simply put, the scoring margin — win or loss — is a vital metric for each game.
Here’s everything to know before Syracuse’s (4-0, Atlantic Coast) first Players Era game versus Houston (5-0, Big 12):
All-time series
The series is tied 1-1.
Last time they played
Behind Buddy Boeheim turning into a March Madness superstar, the Orange went from barely making the field of 68 to booking a dance with No. 2-seed Houston in the 2021 Sweet 16. However, Boeheim and the Orange’s miraculous run came to a screeching halt versus the Cougars, falling 62-46. SU hasn’t returned to March Madness since.
Boeheim, along with Joe Girard III, led Syracuse with 12 points. Meanwhile, future NBA first-round pick Quentin Grimes scored a game-high 14 points, while Justin Gorham (13) and Marcus Sasser (12) also scored in double figures for the Cougars.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 17% chance of winning, with a projected score of 75-65.
The Cougars report
Houston has been one of the best programs in college basketball since Kelvin Sampson became its head coach in 2014. Though the Cougars posted a losing season during Sampson’s first season at the helm, they’ve won at least 20 games in every campaign since and have made the last seven NCAA Tournaments.
Last season was arguably the best in program history, as Houston fell by two points against Florida in the National Championship game. Since then, Sampson has seen significant roster changes, but his program’s dominance has continued.
L.J. Cryer and J’Wan Roberts — two of the Cougars’ starters last year — are no longer with the program, but Sampson brought in three top-20 freshmen in Chris Cenac Jr., Isiah Harwell and Kingston Flemings. Flemings leads Houston in scoring (17.4 PPG), while Cenac Jr. ranks third (11.0 PPG).
The Cougars also retained three of last year’s starters. Thus far, those three players — Joseph Tugler (7.52), Emmanuel Sharp (7.25) and Milos Uzan (6.93) — are Houston’s three highest-rated players by EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR).
Off to a 5-0 start, the Cougars’ best win was a 73-72 victory over No. 22 Auburn on Nov. 16. KenPom ranks Houston as the fourth-best team in the country, while EvanMiya rates it third.
How Syracuse beats Houston
Houston’s identity under Sampson has been playing one of the slowest tempos offensively and ranking among the best defenses in the country. That’s been the story through five games, as Sampson’s squad’s KenPom-adjusted tempo ranks 356th, while boasting KenPom’s No. 1 defense.
It’s easier said than done, but Syracuse’s best way of defeating the Cougars would be to play in the half-court as little as possible. Houston prefers to grind teams down on both ends of the floor, which the Orange can avoid by playing fast and getting out in transition.
Additionally, by facing an elite defense, the Orange will need their defense to show out like it did across their first three games. If Houston scores over 70 points, like Monmouth did on Tuesday, Syracuse will need a near-immaculate performance from its offense to hang around.
Stat to know: 30.6%
Luckily for Syracuse, which is shooting 33% from beyond the arc, Houston has also struggled shooting 3-pointers. The Cougars have made 30.6% of their 3s, which ranks 250th in the country.
While their quality of opponents may have something to do with it, the Orange’s 23.0% 3-point percentage against is the fourth-best in the nation.
Houston’s main 3-point threat is Sharp, who’s made 13-of-35 triples thus far. The Cougars’ highest percentage 3-point shooter (minimum two makes) is Flemings at 50%, but the freshman has only attempted 2.4 triples per game.
Player to watch: Joseph Tugler, forward, No. 11
Tugler’s 9.2 points and 1.6 assists per game may not look eye-popping. And that’s not what makes him one of the most valuable players in the country. Instead, it’s his rebounding and defense, as he’s averaging 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 blocks and 2.4 steals.
According to EvanMiya BPR, Tugler is the 22nd-most valuable player in the country. His 5.55 defensive BPR leads the nation, with EvanMiya grading him in the 99.9th percentile for defensive impact, 99.6th percentile for blocks and 97.4th percentile for steals.
Though Tugler isn’t a prolific scorer or distributor, he’s still a highly valuable offensive player. The forward is a 99th percentile offensive rebounder, while his offensive impact (which quantifies how much a player impacts his team’s offensive performance beyond what’s measured in his box score) is in the 98.5th percentile.
