Syracuse’s ACC outlook as it prepares for season-defining stretch
SU sits at 5-3 heading into its final nonconference slate. With three weeks before ACC play, here’s an outlook on its conference schedule. Eli Schwartz | Staff Photographer
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Eight games into a pivotal campaign, Syracuse proved it can end its three-year NCAA Tournament drought. Its upset 62-60 victory over then-No. 13 Tennessee put Adrian Autry’s squad in a position to carve out a March Madness-caliber resume — as long as it handles business in Atlantic Coast Conference play.
SU, specifically Autry and his staff, are in a prove-it campaign. The Orange’s third-year head coach hasn’t led the program to the tournament and has an 18-22 record in conference games. There are few excuses this season, though, due to SU’s influx of young talent, transfer-portal impact players and star returners like J.J. Starling and Donnie Freeman.
The Orange host four lowly nonconference opponents from Dec. 11-22. But after that, it’s go time. With three weeks left before ACC play, here’s an outlook on Syracuse’s (5-3, ACC) crucial conference stretch:
A crowded ACC field
Unlike recent years, the ACC is loaded this season. The conference boasts five teams within KenPom’s top-25 ranked programs and eight within its top-40. However, Duke, Louisville and North Carolina stand out this year, all currently ranking inside the AP’s top-15 teams.
The No. 3 Blue Devils look primed for another Final Four run under head coach Jon Scheyer, as they’re led by stellar freshman Cameron Boozer — who ranks second in the nation with 23.1 points per game. The No. 11 Cardinals recently suffered their first loss of the year, an upset to then-No. 25 Arkansas, but they’ve proven to be one of the deepest and most efficient Division I offenses. And No. 14 UNC has earned a few huge wins so far, including victories over then-No. 19 Kansas (with a healthy Darryn Peterson) and then-No. 18 Kentucky.
Virginia and Clemson round out a crowded upper echelon of the ACC. The 8-1 Cavaliers are returning to their Tony Bennett-era brand of basketball, suffocating teams and playing smart, efficient offense. While the Tigers lost their top player in forward Ian Schieffelin, they’ve replenished their production down low with transfers RJ Godfrey and Carter Welling.
That brings us to the ACC’s dark horse tier which, all things considered, includes Syracuse. Miami, NC State, Notre Dame and Wake Forest are all likely NCAA Tournament bubble teams and have put together decent campaigns thus far. The one to watch from that group is the Wolfpack, led by new head coach Will Wade and former SU point guard Quadir Copeland.
There are, of course, a few bottom feeders in the ACC. Particularly Boston College, Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh. Sound the alarms if the Orange lose to any of those teams, especially the Yellow Jackets a year after SU swiped their best player in point guard Naithan George.
Autry’s conference preview
This year’s ACC slate not only could determine if the Orange are March Madness-worthy or not; it could decide Autry’s future as Syracuse’s head coach.
SU’s trip to Las Vegas for the Players Era Festival, where it went 0-3, was meant to improve the program’s national standing and, in turn, Autry’s resume. The Orange almost accomplished that, narrowly losing to then-No. 3 Houston in overtime before competing with Kansas at times in an eventual 11-point defeat.
But Autry thinks SU has plenty of chances to avenge its squandered opportunity in Sin City throughout its upcoming ACC schedule.
“Our league is really good this year,” Autry told ESPN Syracuse on Dec. 3. “So yeah, we will have some more games in our league that will be physical just like that.”
The Orange need as many Quad 1 chances as they can get going forward, especially since their upset win over Tennessee is now considered a Quad 2 win, per updated NCAA NET rankings. SU currently ranks 76th in the NET rankings, which directly correlate to March Madness qualification status.
Autry is confident with the ACC’s makeup and believes Syracuse can significantly bolster its NCAA Tournament resume in a strong conference.
“We’ll probably have eight or nine teams, once you start conference play, in that Quad 1, Quad 2 vicinity,” Autry said.
In terms of how the Orange need to perform in ACC matchups, Autry is clear about what he wants their identity to be.
“We want to be able to depend on our defense,” Autry said. “We need to depend on our defense so we can get our offense going.”
How the Orange stack up
Most of Syracuse’s on-paper advantages compared to the rest of the ACC lie in its defense. The Orange hold opponents to the 11th-lowest effective field goal percentage (43.2%) in the nation, per KenPom and limit teams to a 41.2% shooting clip from inside the arc — the seventh-best mark in D-I. SU’s defensive success has shown the value UCLA transfer big William Kyle III and freshman forward Sadiq White have brought this season, among others.
Autry also accomplished what’s necessary to create a winning team in the modern landscape of college basketball. This offseason, Syracuse invested in big-time transfers like George, Kyle and Nate Kingz to help secure a floor general, rim protector and 3-point marksman, respectively.
Still, the Orange have several things to prove before being considered among the best teams in the conference. At the moment, they’re No. 63 in the nation on KenPom and No. 58 on EvanMiya, which rank 11th and 10th among ACC programs, respectively.
Syracuse was picked to finish ninth in the ACC’s preseason poll. Its win over Tennessee (now a Quad 2 victory) didn’t change its projected trajectory, with KenPom currently predicting SU to finish with an 8-10 ACC record this season.
Getting back star forward Freeman — who hasn’t played since Nov. 18 due to a foot injury — will be a stratospheric addition for Syracuse before conference play. He’ll likely rest the next four nonconference games with the goal of suiting up versus Clemson on New Year’s Eve. In the meantime, there are plenty of things SU needs to fix ahead of this crucial slate.
Rebounding inconsistencies, 3-point struggles and free-throw miscues caused the Orange to display a rather unsustainable playstyle to begin 2025-26, particularly in their last four games. Syracuse was crushed on the glass by Kansas, getting outrebounded 49-29, has shot below 30% from 3 in each of its last four contests and currently ranks as the 2nd-worst free-throw shooting team in the country at 57.3%.
Against Houston, SU’s abysmal 12-for-29 performance from the charity stripe cost it a chance to win the game in regulation, and it eventually lost in overtime. Inefficiency like that will not go over well down the stretch in ACC play.
SU’s regular-season path
The Orange’s conference slate starts easy but turns into a gauntlet. There’s plenty of opportunity for them to carve out a solid ACC Tournament seed.
After opening conference play by hosting Clemson on Dec. 31, Syracuse has a six-game stretch through Jan. 21 where it faces Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State, Boston College and Virginia Tech. All of those games are highly winnable for SU. It then has a marquee home matchup against a feisty Miami squad on Jan. 24, and things get difficult from there.
The Orange have a home matchup against Notre Dame on Jan. 31 sandwiched between road trips to North Carolina, first to face NC State on Jan. 27 then to battle UNC on Feb. 2. Trips to Virginia and Duke, and a rematch versus the Tar Heels at the Dome, round out Syracuse’s February slate before a tough battle at Louisville on March 3.
There’s a realistic possibility SU can be 15-3 through Jan. 21 with a 6-1 start to ACC play. The tougher part for Autry and Co. is navigating that late January-February gauntlet. It might be opportune timing for Syracuse to establish its identity in ACC play before facing its top teams.
