What to know about Syracuse’s nonconference clash with Hofstra
Syracuse will look for its third straight win when it hosts Hofstra in the JMA Wireless Dome Saturday afternoon. Christian Calabrese | Staff Photographer
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Following nine days off between defeating then-No. 13 Tennessee and Saint Joseph’s, Syracuse returns to action roughly 40 hours after beating the Hawks Thursday night, hosting Hofstra. The Pride enter the JMA Wireless Dome on a two-game winning streak, downing Pittsburgh on the road and Old Westbury by 69 points at home.
Tip-off is at 4 p.m. EST Saturday, and the game will be televised on the ACC Network. The matchup marks the Orange’s second game of a five-game tune-up before conference play begins against Clemson on Dec. 31. Among that stretch, Hofstra (No. 119) is SU’s highest-ranked opponent, per KenPom.
Here’s everything to know about the Pride (7-4 Coastal Athletic) before they face the Orange (6-3, ACC):
All-time series
Syracuse leads 3-0.
Last time they played
The last time SU and Hofstra faced, Kiyan Anthony wasn’t born. The Pride traveled to central New York to face then-No. 23 Syracuse on Dec. 22, 2006, falling 85-60. The Orange were led by Demetris Nichols (20), Eric Devendorf (16), Josh Wright (12), Paul Harris (12) and Matt Gorman (10), who all scored in double figures. However, it was Hofstra’s Antoine Agudio who scored a game-high 22 points.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 78% chance of winning, with a projected score of 75-67.
The Pride report
Hofstra is helmed by fifth-year head coach Speedy Claxton, who won 20 or more games in each of his first three seasons but faltered to a 15-18 campaign last year. Claxton played for the Pride from 1996-2000 before embarking on a seven-year NBA career. He then joined Hofstra’s staff as an assistant in 2013 before becoming its head coach in 2021.
Claxton’s rotation mostly fluctuates between eight and 10 players, most of whom are in their first year with the program. However, they’re led by returnee Cruz Davis, who is one of 33 Division I players averaging over 20 points per game (20.6).
The Pride’s best win this year is against Pittsburgh, which is ranked No. 108 by KenPom. The closest-ranked team to Syracuse Hofstra has played is No. 53 UCF, and it narrowly fell 82-78 on the road. Outside of the win over the Panthers, the Pride have lost their other four games against teams ranked in KenPom’s top 200.
Hofstra’s offense is relatively middle of the pack, as KenPom rates the unit 147th. Claxton’s squad has the 90th-ranked defense, holding opponents to shoot 45.0% from inside the arc, the 25th-best clip in the country. However, they allow opponents to shoot 35.6% from beyond the arc, which ranks 262nd.
How Syracuse beats Hofstra
If at least one of the following three things happens, the Orange should secure their third straight win:
1. Get a “kill” shot
2. Two of J.J. Starling, Naithan George or Anthony step up
3. Syracuse makes its 3-pointers
Last time out versus Saint Joseph’s, SU failed to get a “kill,” which played a big role in the Hawks hanging around throughout the game despite SU’s lead midway through the first half. The term “kill shot” was popularized by analytics expert Evan Miyakawa (the founder of EvanMiya) and refers to a scoring run in which a team scores 10 or more unanswered points, effectively “killing” the opponent’s momentum.
Though Starling, George and Anthony have all had their moments throughout the year, none of the three have consistently shown they’re three of Syracuse’s best players. If at least two of them step on Saturday, it’ll be difficult for the Pride to hang around. If all three play well, the Orange should cruise to a blowout win.
As stated above, Hofstra has one of the worst 3-point defenses in the country. Syracuse, however, has one of the worst 3-point attacks, ranking 287th in the country by shooting 30%. Tyler Betsey and Nate Kingz combined for Syracuse’s six total 3s (three each) against Saint Joseph’s, while SU attempted a season-low 14 triples.
Stat to know: 67
Despite defeating Saint Joseph’s, Syracuse’s KenPom ranking dropped from No. 62 to No. 67. While amusing for fans of the internet meme, SU was likely frustrated because every metric matters as it’s trying to snap its four-year March Madness drought.
Another close game Saturday, even if the Orange win, would likely drop their ranking further. However, a big win would boost their ranking.
Player to watch: Cruz Davis, guard, No. 5
Davis began his collegiate career playing for Iona from 2022-23. He was coached by Rick Pitino and played alongside Walter Clayton Jr. as the Gaels made the NCAA Tournament. The guard mostly played a role off the bench before following Pitino to St. John’s after the season.
However, Davis played just four games with the Red Storm before suffering a season-ending injury and entering the transfer portal, which landed him at Hofstra. Davis averaged 14.4 points, 4.4 steals and 1.5 assists per game last season. This year, he’s upped his point and assist figures to 20.6 and 4.9 while averaging 1.1 steals.
Davis’ 3.09 EvanMiya BPR leads the Pride, and his 2.52 offensive BPR ranks higher than every SU player’s besides Donnie Freeman, who will likely miss his sixth straight game with a lower-body injury.
EvanMiya rated Davis’ playmaking in the 98th percentile, assists in the 97th percentile, scoring volume in the 94th percentile and 3-point shooting in the 93rd percentile.
