Everything to know before Syracuse battles Miami in the Dome
Syracuse is in danger of its third straight loss Saturday against Miami, which has also dropped back-to-back contests. Eli Schwartz | Asst. Photo Editor
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The boo-birds were loud Wednesday evening in the JMA Wireless Dome. So was Adrian Autry’s rare F-bomb during his postgame press conference, apoplectic that Syracuse couldn’t haul in a rebound off a free throw in the final seconds of its 76-74 loss to Virginia Tech.
For Autry, time is of the essence to prove his plan to fix SU can work. He’s on track to miss a third consecutive NCAA Tournament and the team’s fifth straight. Orange fans are getting restless. Chants for Director of Athletics John Wildhack to move on from Autry pierced through the air a few nights ago, what’s become a fairly common theme this season.
Syracuse is on a two-game losing streak, falling to Boston College before VT, both opponents it was favored to defeat. Now the path gets tougher as the Orange battle the Miami Hurricanes, a team in the Atlantic Coast Conference’s upper echelon despite also riding a two-game skid.
Here’s everything to know before Syracuse (12-7, 3-3 ACC) hosts Miami (15-4, 4-2 ACC) Saturday afternoon:
All-time series
SU leads 20-13.
Last time they played …
On Feb. 11, 2025, the Orange couldn’t get it done on the road against the Hurricanes in a 91-84 loss. The contest featured Syracuse’s second-worst defensive outing versus an ACC opponent last season, aside from the 101 points it allowed in an overtime loss to Virginia Tech on March 1.
Though J.J. Starling (25 points) and Eddie Lampkin Jr. (22 points) nearly combined for 50 points, that doesn’t matter when no one can play defense. The Hurricanes lit it up from 3-point range, going 10-for-20, and were led by guard Matthew Cleveland’s game-high 32 points on a scorching-hot 10-for-13 shooting performance.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 44% chance of winning, with a projected score of 76-74.
The Hurricanes report
Miami head coach Jai Lucas’ squad will enter the Dome Saturday as losers of its last two games, dropping the ball against Clemson and Florida State. But the Hurricanes are still rated 39th in the nation on KenPom and 37th in the NET Rankings, standing out as one of the ACC’s best.
They’re an extremely balanced team when playing at their peak. Per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric, Miami’s offense is the 63rd-most efficient group while its defense is the 29th.
The Hurricanes don’t miss the easy stuff, ranking 16th in the nation with a 59.4% shooting clip from 2-point range, and they’ll turn you over on the other end — boasting a 20% defensive turnover rate (42nd in Division I).
Miami’s led by a four-headed monster of scorers: Malik Reneau (19.6 points per game), Tre Donaldson (16.0), Shelton Henderson (14.3) and Tru Washington (11.7). Donaldson and Washington make up a dangerous backcourt duo, with the former’s 6.4 assists per game and the latter’s 33 steals each ranking as team-highs.
But the Hurricanes’ star 6-foot-9 senior forward, Reneau (an Indiana transfer), is their bonafide No. 1 option. He ranks seventh in scoring average among all ACC players. He works mostly from inside, but can pull the trigger from range with some proficiency, shooting 33.3% on 45 attempts.
Per EvanMiya, Reneau’s overall Bayesian Performance Rating (BPR) of 7.75 is among the nation’s highest totals, showing his immense value on both sides of the floor.
How Syracuse beats Miami
Getting Donnie Freeman going again would certainly be a start. He shot 3-for-14 (21.4%) in SU’s loss to Virginia Tech Wednesday, the second-worst shooting performance of his collegiate career. The Orange can compete with anybody when he’s at his best, and they’ll need that at a minimum to beat Miami.
But what SU really needs to do across the board is take care of the little things. Rebounding, free-throw shooting, avoiding careless late-game turnovers; all things Autry was enraged at after the VT loss.
“We get another chance, and we walk under the f—ing basketball, under the rim and we don’t get the rebound,” he said, referring to a late-game play where Hokies forward Tobi Lawal grabbed an offensive board that killed Syracuse’s chances of a comeback win.
The little things are oftentimes the plays that win teams games. Too often against top competition this year, the Orange haven’t excelled in those areas. Saturday is a chance for SU to change that narrative and finally play well from wire to wire to get out of its rut.
Stat to know: 70
For Syracuse, the magic number is 70. If the Orange can hold the Hurricanes’ offense to under 70 points, they’ll win.
Well, the victory formula might not be that simple, but in every one of Miami’s games this year, it has won when scoring above 70 and lost when scoring below 70. It is 0-4 when limited to the 60-69 point range, including its last two conference bouts.
The last time SU gave up fewer than 70 points was last year … on New Year’s Eve afternoon against Clemson. The Orange have allowed 77.4 points over their last five games.
Player to watch: Tre Donaldson, guard, No. 3
Donaldson is Miami’s most valuable offensive player, per EvanMiya, boasting a 5.46 offensive rating (OBPR). His 6.4 assists per game is the second-highest average in the ACC behind SMU’s Boopie Miller (6.8).
The 6-foot-3 Michigan transfer guard is playing his best ball here in his senior season, and he’ll be a tough task for Syracuse’s backcourt to fend off. Starling or point guard Naithan George will likely draw the assignment.
