Previewing Syracuse’s home ACC matchup vs. Florida State
Syracuse takes on Florida State Wednesday, which is coming off its worst loss in program history, a 113-69 bludgeoning by NC State Saturday. Christian Calabrese | Staff Photographer
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Following a two-game road trip with wins over Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh, Syracuse returns to the JMA Wireless Dome to host Florida State on Tuesday. The game tips off at 9 p.m. EST and will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
Donnie Freeman’s return from a nine-game absence sparked the Orange across their wins, with the sophomore forward scoring a career-high 27 points against GT before pouring in 22 more against Pitt. Now, he has a chance to tack on another big performance against a Seminoles squad coming off their worst loss in program history.
FSU, which boasts a rehauled roster after finishing 17-15 last season, is winless so far in Atlantic Coast Conference play and has yet to beat a Power Four opponent this season.
Here’s everything to know about Florida State (7-9, 0-3 ACC) heading into its matchup with Syracuse (11-5, 2-1 ACC):
All-time series
Syracuse leads the series 11-8.
Last time they played
The last time Syracuse and Florida State met was in the 2025 ACC Tournament First Round. The Orange were in cruise control, leading by 16 points in the second half, but — like they had many times throughout the campaign — they nearly blew the lead.
Luckily for SU, J.J. Starling percolated for 19 of his 27 points in the second half, advancing Syracuse to the second round — an eventual loss to SMU, which ended the season — with a 66-62 win. Starling was supported by Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Jyáre Davis, who each scored 14 points.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 79% chance of winning, with a projected score of 84-75.
The Seminoles report
Led by first-year head coach Luke Loucks, Florida State has an entirely new-look roster with just three returners from last season. Leonard Hamilton previously served as FSU’s head coach for the last 23 seasons before announcing he would step down midseason last February. His announcement came two months after it was reported that former FSU players were suing him over failed NIL payments.
Loucks played under Hamilton from 2008-12 before embarking on a career overseas. He then began coaching as an assistant with the Golden State Warriors in 2016 prior to joining the Sacramento Kings in 2022. On March 9, 2025, he returned to his alma mater to become head coach.
Due to graduations and the transfer portal, Florida State lost essentially its entire rotation from last year, forcing Loucks to replenish from other programs. Thus far, FSU’s five leading scorers — Robert McCray V (13.7), Chauncey Wiggins (12.3), Lajae Jones (11.2), Kobee MaGee (10.9) and Martin Somerville (9.0) — were acquired via the portal.
As expected, a team with a first-year head coach and a new-look roster has experienced ups and downs. In losses to Florida and Duke, the Seminoles fell by a combined six points. Meanwhile, they’re also coming off their worst loss in program history, falling 113-69 to NC State.
FSU’s identity is to push the pace, ranking 12th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Additionally, Florida State loves to shoot 3-pointers, placing third in the country in 3PA/FGA. However, the Seminoles make just 31.7% of their 3s, the 275th-best mark in the nation.
How Syracuse beats Florida State
It’s a relatively simple game plan for SU to win a third straight game — keep playing the way it has over the last two games. Getting Freeman back has made a huge difference, as the offense is finally moving with an alpha scorer.
Against an average Florida State defense, which ranks 155th by KenPom, the target goal should be for the Orange to score at least 80 points because of how fast the Seminoles’ offense moves. Additionally, another key area to watch will be the 3-point discrepancy.
FSU shoots just as many 3s per attempt as nearly every team in the country, but as stated above, it’s not a great 3-point shooting team. Meanwhile, the Orange (32.2%) also don’t excel from beyond the arc, but they don’t shoot nearly as many 3s.
If Syracuse can hang with FSU from deep while its defense holds off the fast pace, it’ll be in a great spot to extend its winning streak to three.
Stat to know: 9
Including Syracuse ranking No. 60 on KenPom, there are nine ACC teams ranked in the top 60. If the Orange want to remain in the top 60, they can’t lose to FSU, which ranks No. 113. As ACC play continues, KenPom rankings and other metrics — NET Rankings and EvanMiya — will be more important each week.
Once Selection Sunday gets closer, the target goal for ACC bubble teams — assuming around half a dozen teams make March Madness — should be to be inside KenPom’s top 40.
The Orange need to win games that they’re supposed to win, ideally by as many points as possible, and rattle off key Quad 1 and 2 wins. For the Seminoles, there’s a lot of work to be done and beating SU would at least be a start.
Player to watch: Robert McCray V, guard, No. 6
Playing for his third program in four years, McCray has been FSU’s best player thus far. While his scoring average has dipped from the 17.3 points he averaged across two years at Jacksonville to 13.7, the senior is averaging a career-high 6.6 assists per game.
Per EvanMiya, McCray’s 4.57 BPR leads the Seminoles, and he’s their leader in OBPR (3.05) and DBPR (1.52). The 6-foot-4 guard has scored in double digits in all but three of Florida State’s games while scoring at least 20 points three times.
