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Syracuse’s third season under Adrian Autry hasn’t gone according to plan. The Orange would need to win out the rest of their regular-season slate to reach 20 wins, and their only path to March Madness is a run in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.

SU picked up a needed victory Wednesday against Cal. Up next is a home test against SMU. The Mustangs are 17-7 in their second year under Andy Enfield and well on their way to a March Madness berth.

Here’s what our beat writers think will happen when Syracuse (14-11, 5-7 ACC) takes on SMU (17-7, 6-5 ACC) Saturday in the JMA Wireless Dome:

Aiden Stepansky (19-6)
Not learning my lesson
Syracuse 84, SMU 82

At last year’s ACC Tournament, I pulled off the improbable. Syracuse’s horrific regular season landed it in an opening round matchup against Florida State. Despite SU’s shortcomings, I took a lone wolf risk and picked it to beat FSU. Then, I took the fool’s gold, picking the Orange to beat SMU the next day. That didn’t happen. Yet in a similar scenario, I’m picking Syracuse to beat the Mustangs again.

I by no means am implying the Orange will kickstart a miraculous run. Though SMU’s defense is simply unimpressive, and SU should put up enough points to stick with the Mustangs into the final minutes at least. Even in their win over Notre Dame, the Mustangs still allowed 81 points while the Fighting Irish were without top scorer Markus Burton.

The matchup with Boopie Miller is worrisome; however, the Orange just faced a shifty point guard with high shot-making abilities. Cal’s Dai Dai Ames made 10 shots on 25 attempts in the 50 minutes of play Wednesday, proving SU can at least find a way to make a top scorer somewhat inefficient. Syracuse could do the same to Miller, which would throw off SMU’s nucleus.

Of course, this is a bit of a stretch. The Orange are 2-22 against KenPom top 80 teams the last two seasons, and beating the No. 37 team would be one of Autry’s best in the ACC. But desperation feeds victories. No one is more desperate than Syracuse right now.

Cooper Andrews (19-6)
The slide re-starts
Syracuse 76, SMU 88

Over SU’s next five games — against SMU, No. 4 Duke, No. 11 UNC, Wake Forest and No. 24 Louisville — it has plenty of opportunities to generate an improbable turnaround on what’s been a middling campaign. Or Syracuse could continue fading into irrelevancy as it seems likely to miss its fifth consecutive NCAA Tournament.

Wednesday’s win over California was cute, but quite thrilling nonetheless. I still don’t think the Orange will turn that victory into a hot streak. They’re in for another disappointing loss this weekend, this time at the hands of Enfield’s Mustangs.

Syracuse’s defense has floundered in ACC play, and I fear one of the worst examples of that will come Saturday. SMU has the 15th-most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom, shoots the 3-ball at a scorching 37.9% clip (22nd in the nation) and is led by Miller, one of the most dynamic players and best passers in Division I hoops; his 6.8 assists per game are second in the ACC.

The Orange don’t have the backcourt resources to thwart Miller’s ability to score at a high rate and dish to open shooters. And they don’t have the scheme (an inconsistent 2-3 zone), either. The Mustangs will flirt with scoring 90 points in this one, which could be a common theme for SU’s next handful of opponents to wrap its regular season.

Justin Girshon (17-8)
Flipping the switch
Syracuse 83, SMU 81

After the Orange held off Cal in one of the wilder sporting events I’ve ever watched, I asked Autry if he’d ever had a game where the lights turned off and how it could even be a win that helps flip the switch on the season. Autry replied, “You know what, I hope it flips the switch.”

The third-year head coach said it while smiling before cracking a quick laugh — a pleasantly welcoming scene, especially on a day when his future with the program became a hot topic following John Wildhack’s retirement announcement. While I’m not convinced Syracuse will flip the switch on its season and Autry will miraculously save his job, I foresee the Orange winning a second straight game.

The Mustangs’ defense isn’t particularly great, so if SU can again have a handful of players click offensively — as it did against the Golden Bears — it should have a good chance to pick up a must-win Quad 2 game. Containing Miller and Co. is a daunting task, but Syracuse will get just enough stops while hitting timely shots down the stretch to escape with a second straight thrilling win.

Published on February 13, 2026 at 11:59 pm