W
hatever happens Saturday in the JMA Wireless Dome can’t get much worse than Syracuse’s display Monday night against Duke. The Orange were in a tight contest for much of the first half, but the No. 3 Blue Devils outclassed them in every facet from there. SU suffered a 101-64 loss, its largest Atlantic Coast Conference defeat since joining the league in 2013.
Four regular-season games remain for Adrian Autry’s Orange — who sit 70th in the NCAA NET Rankings — in need of a generational run to make March Madness. Though that possibility is highly unlikely, Syracuse can gain some ground this weekend against North Carolina. The Tar Heels, helmed by fifth-year head coach Hubert Davis, beat the Orange 87-77 on Feb. 2. However, UNC’s star freshman forward Caleb Wilson might not play Saturday due to injury.
Here’s how our beat writers predict Syracuse (15-12, 6-8 ACC) will fare against No. 16 North Carolina (20-6, 8-5 ACC) in their second head-to-head matchup of the season:
Aiden Stepansky (21-6)
The great downfall
Syracuse 77, North Carolina 78
Fun fact. Syracuse is 1-6 in its seven games against Duke and North Carolina under Autry. OK, maybe not a fun fact.
While I very much see this game coming down to the wire and the Orange possibly pulling out a win, there’s a part of me that thinks it’s time to step back and look at the big picture. Yes, the Tar Heels are missing the star freshman, Wilson. But UNC recently beat Duke. Did SU look like it could beat Duke? By the transitive property, I’m going with North Carolina.
Bouncing back from a 37-point loss is no easy feat. Even with the Orange returning home, I see their offensive mental block remaining. Syracuse shot over 37% from 3, but it’s apparent it still doesn’t know what it’s doing. Rather than feeding a hot Nate Kingz, the Orange deferred away to give J.J. Starling and Donnie Freeman more shots. It hasn’t worked all year. Why will it work against the ACC’s best?
Syracuse could very much be leading this game at half or at least within five points. But just as Duke did at this time of year, the good teams distinguish themselves from the bad teams. North Carolina is a good team. SU simply isn’t.
Cooper Andrews (20-7)
Get out the brooms
Syracuse 71, North Carolina 74
A ping pong ball continues to bounce back and forth in my head — I have no idea who’s going to win this game. On one hand, you’ve got a Syracuse team coming off its worst performance of the season that sent it back down to Earth after a two-game win streak. On the other, you’ve got UNC, a team that frankly can’t be viewed under the same lens without Wilson on the floor.
Autry’s boys have a solid chance of nabbing an upset victory to electrify the Dome Saturday, especially if Wilson can’t go. With four full days of rest in between the Duke game and this one, the Orange will be far more prepared for their opponent than they were for the wrath of playing in Cameron Indoor.
However, SU has shown time and time again that it struggles to win the big matchups; this is another one it’ll falter in. I think the (probably) Wilson-less Tar Heels will beat the Orange, and Syracuse will lose to two straight Tobacco Road teams in a week’s time.
If SU can limit UNC’s scoring in transition, be careful with the basketball and move it well — which Autry called out directly following its last game versus the Tar Heels — it can keep this one close. To win, the Orange must avoid giving up unanswered runs of double-digit points. But Syracuse has made that a habit in losing efforts, and I see another “kill shot” destroying its chance at shocking North Carolina.
Get your brooms out, because the Tar Heels will sweep the Orange.
Justin Girshon (19-8)
Just another day in the ACC
Syracuse 77, North Carolina 75
As Autry said after the Orange beat Cal, which featured two overtimes and a power outage delay, it was “just another day in the ACC.” North Carolina dominated Syracuse in Chapel Hill and upset Duke — a Blue Devils team that just handed the Orange their worst loss under Autry. The Tar Heels should cruise when they visit the JMA Wireless Dome.
But Saturday will be “just another day in the ACC,” and Syracuse will get a much-needed Quad 1 win. Regardless of whether Wilson plays or not — which, if he does, he’ll be playing with a cast on — the Orange should be able to keep this game within a few possessions.
In the event Wilson doesn’t play, EvanMiya’s algorithm assigns a -6.97-point injury adjustment for UNC missing its star freshman. Because this is a home game for SU, the point spread would likely be around 4-6 points even if Wilson were playing. If Wilson’s out, that can prove to be the difference from a narrow SU loss to a narrow SU win.
Yes, it’s hard to believe in the Orange after what occurred in Cameron Indoor Stadium Monday night. But college basketball is unpredictable, and Syracuse will show why when it defends its home court.
Photo by Tara Deluca | Asst. Photo Editor
Published on February 19, 2026 at 12:03 am