Previewing Syracuse men’s basketball’s ACC Tournament path
Syracuse finished the regular season 1-10 in Quad 1 games, forcing it to run the table in the conference tournament to earn an automatic bid into March Madness. Zoe Xixis | Asst. Photo Editor
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Syracuse lost its last five games of the regular season. All it takes now for the Orange to extend their season into March Madness is winning five straight games.
After a dreadful third regular season under Adrian Autry, SU landed as the No. 14 seed in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament. The Orange begin their final chance at snapping a four-year NCAA Tournament skid Tuesday at 4:30 p.m., where they will take on No. 11 seed SMU in Charlotte.
Syracuse finished the regular season 1-10 in Quad 1 games, forcing it to run the table in the conference tournament to earn an automatic bid into March Madness. Since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, the Orange are 6-10 in the tournament and have never advanced past the quarterfinals.
Here’s what to know about the road ahead for No. 14 seed Syracuse men’s basketball (15-16, 6-12 ACC) in the 2026 ACC Tournament:
1st round: No. 11 seed SMU
Syracuse’s best ACC win, and its last, ironically, came against the Mustangs. On Feb. 14, Nate Kingz maneuvered inside for a game-winning layup to capture a 79-78 victory. SMU has since finished the year 2-4 and is on a four-game losing streak entering Charlotte.
The Mustangs have fallen from right around a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament most of the year into a No. 11 and one of the last teams in, per Joe Lunardi’s bracketology. SMU’s best wins are over Louisville, North Carolina and Texas A&M, and it is 4-7 in Quad 1 games.
In its second year under head coach Andy Enfield, SMU took a step back from 24 wins to 19 so far. Guard Boopie Miller leads the way with 19.4 points per game — the fifth most in the ACC — but he dropped just 11 last time out against the Orange.
Another top guard is BJ Edwards, and he’s been out for the Mustangs in the last three games with an ankle injury. SMU has lost all three games without Edwards, and if he’s out, Miller’s tied-for-ACC-leading 6.6 assists per game will have to make an impact alongside his scoring.
2nd round: No. 6 seed Louisville
These teams could play twice in eight days. The Orange would take on the Cardinals at approximately 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday in the second game of the day. Syracuse just fell to Louisville by 15 last Tuesday despite winning the second half.
This is Pat Kelsey’s second year in charge of the Cardinals, and they’ve taken a slight step back. Still, his offense is one of the most explosive in the country. Louisville finished first in the conference in points per game with 85.9. KenPom has the Cardinals at 17th in the country and they’re 7-9 in Quad 1 games with wins over Kentucky, Indiana and Baylor.
The question ahead for Louisville in Charlotte is the status of star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. Even without Brown, who dropped 45 points against NC State this year, the Cardinals knocked down 14 3s against SU. Brown hasn’t played in the month of March while battling a back injury.
Quarterfinal: No. 3 seed Miami
Jai Lucas has proved all season what can happen when heavy investment in a program meets exceptional coaching. The Hurricanes flipped their record from 7-24 to 24-7 in Lucas’s first year, making them a force to be reckoned with at the top of the ACC.
If the Orange were to reach this point, it would mean they’ve turned the tide and played some of their best basketball of the season. SU lost to Miami at home on Jan. 24, as sharpshooters Kingz and Tyler Betsey were shut down from deep.
With Lucas’s success, guard Tre Donaldson has stepped into a major role and forward Malik Reneau leads the way with 19.8 points per game. The Hurricanes have already taken down projected NCAA Tournament teams North Carolina and NC State. Syracuse likely wouldn’t cause much fear.
Semifinal: Likely No. 2 seed Virginia
Reaching the semifinal would be historic for Syracuse. The Orange have never made it this far in the ACC Tournament. Jubilation on Thursday night would quickly turn to another top challenge on Friday. Syracuse fell to Virginia 72-59 on Feb. 7.
Ryan Odom and Autry coached together at Virginia Tech in the early 2010s, but Odom has produced far better results in his first head coaching gig in the ACC. The Cavaliers are 6-3 in Quad 1 games in their first year under Odom, and rattled off a 15-3 ACC record. Virginia won five straight ACC games at one point and eight straight at another.
The Cavaliers are projected to be a No. 4 seed in March Madness and are led by a spread-out scoring effort. No player averages more than 16 points per game, but six average at least 7.5 points per game. Virginia’s steady defense is the key, as it allows the third fewest points per game in the ACC.
Championship: Likely No. 1 seed Duke or No. 4 seed North Carolina
If a miracle ensues in Charlotte, Syracuse would likely take on No. 1 Duke or No. 4 North Carolina in the championship game with an automatic bid on the line. There may be talk of bringing Autry back if they make it to Saturday. But what are the chances of five-straight ACC wins? The last three seasons would say it’s impossible.
Duke is Duke. Even as two top players, Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, are expected to miss the ACC Tournament to rest for March Madness, the Blue Devils still beat the Orange by 37 points just a few weeks ago. North Carolina is without Caleb Wilson, but beat Syracuse on Feb. 21. The Tar Heels also took down SU on Feb. 2.
Getting to Saturday itself would be an accomplishment and one of the all-time plot twists.
