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For the second straight year, Syracuse earned the No. 14 seed in the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament following an under-.500 regular season. In a potential make-or-break third season for head coach Adrian Autry, his fate seems all but sealed. The Orange’s season will end whenever they lose in Charlotte — unless they somehow win the title.

SU enters the ACC Tournament on a five-game losing streak, its worst spell since the 1968-69 season. Meanwhile, the Orange’s first-round opponent, SMU, dropped its final four regular-season games with star guard B.J. Edwards was sidelined with an ankle injury. His status for Tuesday is to be determined.

On Feb. 14, Syracuse defeated the Mustangs 79-78 in the JMA Wireless Dome behind a Nate Kingz game-winner. At one point, as SMU became a top 30 team in the NET Rankings, it was considered a Quad 1 win for SU. Even with the Mustangs now slotting in No. 38 and it being a Quad 2 win, it’s still the Orange’s second-best win of the season.

Now, to keep its season alive, Syracuse must beat SMU and win five games in five days to avoid a fifth straight year without an NCAA Tournament berth.

Here’s how our beat writers think the Orange (15-16, 6-12 ACC) will fare against the Mustangs (19-12, 8-10 ACC) in the first round of the ACC Tournament:

Aiden Stepansky (24-7)
The end
Syracuse 71, SMU 73

All good stories finish with the phrase “the end.” This is far from a good story. It’s a sad one, actually, full of disappointments. But just as all good things must come to an end, all bad things must, too. Syracuse’s horrid third year under Autry will end Tuesday. As a result, the era will also come to an end.

The Mustangs are just about as favorable of a matchup as the Orange could’ve drawn. SU already beat SMU, and both squads ride a large losing streak into Charlotte. However, the Mustangs are a team fighting for a March Madness spot and the Orange are a squad fighting for tomorrow. This heavily plays into SMU’s favor.

A year ago, Syracuse fought into the ACC Tournament Second Round riding high off momentum from a regular-season-ending victory over Virginia. This time around, the squad is defeated. The Orange lost to a team somehow worse than them in Pitt, and J.J. Starling has just four points in his last three games. He dropped zero against the Panthers. I don’t expect him to drastically turn the tide three days later.

SU will make this a close game because of SMU’s recent rough stretch. Though just as it has all year, Syracuse will fall short for the final nail in the coffin.

Cooper Andrews (24-7)
Goodbye, Farewell and Amen
Syracuse 67, SMU 76

One of the greatest finales in television history occurred on Feb. 28, 1983. If you’ve ever watched M*A*S*H, you’d know the nearly three-hour long finale — titled, “Goodbye, Farewell and Amen” — stands alone as the most-watched series finale in world history, totaling over 100 million viewers.

M*A*S*H delivered an epic ending. But for the 2025-26 Syracuse men’s basketball team, I highly doubt they can leave their audience on a satisfying note.

I envision Miller having his way with the Orange all night long — not just for one half, like last time out — and for SU to sputter on offense once again in what should be its season finale. The way Donnie Freeman and Starling played in the loss to Pitt Saturday showed me this team isn’t prepared to make any sort of noise in this tournament. If your two marquee returners from last season are putting up stinkers this late in the year, you’re out of any and all hope. Syracuse needs a diverse pool of scorers to excel Tuesday night, but it won’t get that.

My heart goes out to all the lifelong Orange fans who’ve seen their program progressively sink over the last few years. Even in my own childhood, which wasn’t too long ago, I would have never believed you if you said Syracuse was a No. 14 seed in a conference tournament. And I’d believe you even less if you said SU has no shot at going on a run.

Justin Girshon (20-11)
I didn’t hear no bell
Syracuse 77, SMU 75

Syracuse’s season — and Autry’s fate — resemble a boxer who’s been beaten up through the first nine rounds of a 10-round fight. The boxer has yet to be knocked out, but it’s quite obvious that after the final round, the referee won’t be holding their arm in the air when they declare the winner.

On Tuesday, the Orange will enter the 10th round of their fight. One of two things will happen: The Mustangs will deliver the equivalent of a knockout punch within 10 seconds, or SU will stay in the ring a little longer.

By the time the final-buzzer horn sounds in Charlotte, there won’t be a bell ringing that signifies Syracuse’s season is over. That’s because it’ll squeak by for its second win of the season over SMU.

Currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, the Mustangs have a lot to lose. Unfortunately for them, they’re also playing their worst basketball of the year.

I see this more as a game where SMU folds under pressure rather than SU being the more dominant team. Nonetheless, in another tight bout against the Mustangs, the Orange’s season will live to see another day before inevitably losing their fight on either Wednesday or Thursday if they somehow get to that point.

Published on March 9, 2026 at 8:01 pm