Previewing Syracuse’s ACC Tournament opener against SMU
Syracuse men's basketball begins its quest to win five ACC Tournament games in five days against SMU Tuesday. Zoe Xixis | Asst. Photo Editor
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Syracuse’s regular season didn’t go according to plan. With a revamped roster, the likely expectation was that the Orange would at least be on the NCAA Tournament bubble before the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament.
Instead, Adrian Autry’s potential make-or-break third season as head coach saw SU fall under .500 in regular season play for the second straight year. Now, the only way Syracuse can snap its four-year NCAA Tournament drought is by winning the ACC Tournament.
That would require five wins — the Orange are currently on a five-game losing streak and haven’t won a game in over three weeks — in five days, beginning with a victory over SMU Tuesday. Tipoff is slated for 4:30 p.m. EST, and the game will be broadcast on the ACC Network.
The Mustangs are currently one of the “Last Four In,” per ESPN’s latest bracketology. Amid a four-game losing streak, a win over SU would be a much-needed boost for SMU to qualify for March Madness.
Here’s everything to know about the Mustangs (19-12, 8-10 ACC) before they face Syracuse (15-16, 6-12 ACC) in the first round of the ACC Tournament Tuesday:
All-time series
SMU leads 3-0.
Last time they played
After a memorable overtime win over Cal — where the lights in the JMA Wireless Dome turned off — Syracuse extended its winning streak to two with a thrilling win at home over SMU on Feb. 14. The game came down to the waning seconds, when Nate Kingz scored the game-winner after attacking the rim and sinking a last-second layup.
Alongside Donnie Freeman (18), Naithan George (16) and Kiyan Anthony (13), Kingz’s baker’s dozen gave SU four double-digit scorers. While the Mustangs had five players score in double figures, star guards Boopie Miller, Jaron Pierre Jr. and B.J. Edwards combined for 33 points while shooting 11-of-32 from the field.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 32% chance of winning, with a projected score of 82-77.
The Mustangs report
For much of the season, SMU was one of the best teams in the ACC. However, a four-game losing streak to close the regular season has it on the March Madness bubble days ahead of Selection Sunday.
Throughout the four-game slide, the Mustangs have been without Edwards due to an ankle injury. Per EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, the senior guard’s 7.26 clip is the second-highest on SMU. Meanwhile, his 2.73 defensive BPR leads the team. Edwards’ status for Tuesday is to be determined.
Per KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, the Mustangs have the 20th-best offense in the country. Their 55.9% effective field goal percentage ranks 27th nationally, while their 37.8% 3-point percentage places 23rd. SMU’s unit is led by Miller (19.4, fifth) and Pierre Jr. (17.5, eighth), who each rank top-10 in the ACC in points per game.
On the defensive end, however, the Mustangs rank 110th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The only ACC teams with a worse ranking are Notre Dame and Georgia Tech, which didn’t qualify for the ACC Tournament.
How Syracuse beats SMU
Arguably, the biggest key for the Orange to keep their season alive is to win the 3-point battle. Opposed to SMU ranking 23rd, Syracuse places 226th, shooting 33.2%. Even so, SU outscored the Mustangs 11-7 when it secured an upset win last month.
In that game, Kingz, George, Anthony and Tyler Betsey all made at least two triples. It’s important to note that Anthony — along with fellow freshman Sadiq White Jr. — missed SU’s regular season finale due to injury. Anthony’s and White’s status are to be determined.
Across the regular season, SMU made seven or fewer 3-pointers 12 times; it was 5-7 in those games. The Orange’s 3-point defense is middle of the pack, ranking 181st, but if they can slow the Mustangs down from deep like they did in February, they should at least be in the game.
While he likely won’t be a threat to help from beyond the arc, SU also simply needs more production out of J.J. Starling, who has scored four points across the last three games. The senior was someone Syracuse built its team around, but he’s arguably been its most disappointing player this season.
Stat to know: 57
The last time SU suffered consecutive losing seasons was across the 1967-68 and 1968-69 seasons. If the Orange lose to SMU on Tuesday, it’ll mark the first time in 57 years that they go under .500 in back-to-back campaigns.
How’s that for the “Orange Standard?”
Player to watch: Boopie Miller, guard, No. 2
If the Mustangs do get upset by SU, it could mark the final game of Miller’s college career. The 6-foot guard began his collegiate career at Central Michigan, where he earned MAC All-Freshman team honors for the 2021-22 season before playing in just four games as a sophomore with a foot injury.
Following the campaign, Miller entered the transfer portal and committed to Wake Forest. In his lone year as a Deamon Deacon, he started all 35 of their games while averaging 15.6 points per game. However, for the second time in as many years, he entered the transfer portal and committed to SMU ahead of the 2024-25 season.
At 13.2 points per game, he was the Mustangs’ leading scorer across a 24-11 2024-25 campaign. Behind a career-best 42.4% 3-point percentage, Miller is again SMU’s leading scorer with 19.4 points per game in his final year of eligibility. He also leads the Mustangs with a 7.70 BPR, which ranks eighth in the ACC.
