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When Regy Thorpe was hired as Syracuse’s head coach last offseason, the expectation was to restore its standard. That means the Orange are supposed to play for an NCAA title on Memorial Day weekend.

SU reached that point in 2023 and 2024, but with last season’s near-.500 record, it seemed the Orange would rebuild and miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011 — excluding 2020’s COVID-19 cancellation.

Instead, Thorpe led Syracuse on a 12-game winning streak and to a comfortable tournament berth. And although the Orange have risen as high as No. 3 in weekly polls, the subcommittee punished them for late-season losses to Boston College and North Carolina, leaving them unseeded entering the tournament.

Now, SU has its back against the wall. The hypotheticals of hosting a tournament game are out the window in a quadrant with two top-five teams, per Inside Lacrosse.

Here’s Syracuse’s (13-5, 7-3 Atlantic Coast) roadmap to winning its first-ever NCAA Championship:

First Round: Loyola

In last year’s tourney, Syracuse was positioned to play a regular-season opponent in all but the first round. That’s not the case this year, as the Orange see a familiar foe in Round 1.

The Orange walloped Loyola 15-7 — guided by a 7-0 third-quarter run — on Feb. 24 for their first win of the season. Thorpe integrated his first lineup changes of the campaign, which included benching Ashlee Volpe. But that optimized her for a career-high four assists. Thorpe also found his future go-to left-wing attack by starting Mackenzie Rich for the first time.

The loss dropped the Greyhounds to 2-3, but they won 10 of their next 14 games. They had a marquee 19-14 victory over top-five Navy on March 28 and finished Patriot League play 7-2 despite a conference tournament semifinal exit to Army.

Loyola’s offense has five players with at least 40 points, including Morgan Quade, who has 68. But its defense has been shaky, allowing double-digit scores per game. The Greyhounds’ penchant is the draw, where Mae Murphy’s 230 controls top the nation.

The Orange likely won’t beat Murphy, as SU doesn’t even crack eight draws per contest. Their defense, conceding eight goals a game, is their calling card in a game they should win.

Syracuse midfielder Alexa Vogelman evades a Loyola defender in SU’s 15-7 win over the Greyhounds on Feb. 24. The Orange get a rematch with Loyola in the NCAA Tournament First Round Friday. Brody Shuffler | Contributing Photographer

Second Round: Likely No. 6 seed Navy

Being unseeded doesn’t seem too demoralizing until Syracuse faces a team ranked higher than it this early in the tournament.

Navy hosts UMass in the first round Friday, and despite the Minutewomen’s 16-2 season and undefeated Mid-American Conference record, they’re not in the most competitive conference.

The Midshipmen are far more battle-tested with an 18-1 record overall and a 4-1 record in five ranked games. Their lone loss was the aforementioned Loyola defeat, but they’ve downed Army twice en route to a Patriot League title and earned two other top-10 wins. Navy hasn’t lost at home this season, which is where it would face SU.

The Midshipmen’s 8.3 average scoring margin and 16.1 goals per game are both third in the country, and they concede fewer scores a contest than the Orange. Tewaaraton Award finalist Alyssa Chung’s 72 goals and 102 points rank fourth and fifth in the nation, respectively. The sophomore’s scored in every game and is one of three Navy players with at least 50 points, opposed to Syracuse’s one — Molly Guzik.

The Orange were already exposed against North Carolina, the country’s highest-scoring offense. Against possibly the next-best unit, SU must replicate early-season performances against Northwestern and Yale, when it conceded a combined 11 goals.

Quarterfinals: Likely No. 3 seed Maryland

Let’s say the defense prevails over Navy. Congrats, Syracuse. You’ve probably locked up a matchup with the only team with a longer winning streak than yours this season — Maryland.

The Terrapins opened the season with 13 consecutive victories, beginning with a comfortable 9-5 dispatch of the Orange in Thorpe’s first game and Guzik’s debut as draw specialist. While SU neutralized UMD’s 2025 leading scorer Kori Edmondson, Lauren LaPointe paved the way for her breakout season with five of her 59 goals — a mark that ranks tied for 16th in the country — coming against the Orange.

Aside from LaPointe and Kristen Shanahan’s 70-plus points, they’re two of five Terrapins above 20 scores to SU’s three. Like Syracuse, Maryland’s seen close calls, with its point differential floating around three, while it concedes about 10 goals a game.

The meeting earlier this season was the Orange’s second-lowest scoring output, but their offense has since woken up with 10 double-digit scoring games. Against the Terrapins, though, there’s no expectation SU reaches that mark.

Semifinals: Likely No. 2 seed North Carolina

If Syracuse wins the bottom-right quadrant, it takes on the most loaded section of the bracket. While there are strong suitors like No. 7 seed Michigan, Stanford and Clemson, it would be shocking if North Carolina doesn’t handle business.

This is the team expected to win a national championship, and entering a matchup with the Orange, the Tar Heels would have won a whopping 40 of their last 41 games. It feels like a broken record, but most of the credit goes to Chloe Humphrey, whose 92 goals and 133 points are nearing NCAA single-season records. She’s recorded over four goals in the last nine games.

If you thought Humphrey hogged all the fun, the Tar Heels’ second-place points leader, Addison Pattillo, has 58 points, eight more than Guzik. This team is loaded with six players with 20-plus goals.

On defense, it gets better, surrendering fewer goals a game than Navy with Betty Nelson in net. Remember how the Midshipmen were third in scoring margin? UNC ranks first. Oh, and North Carolina also wins over 16 draws a game at a clip north of 60%.

The Orange flashed promise in an early-season 13-9 loss to the Tar Heels but crashed in the ACC Tournament Semifinals in an ignominious 19-9 defeat, with the game trickling out of reach thanks to UNC’s 6-0 first-quarter run.

North Carolina is the biggest nightmare for any opponent, and for Syracuse, the ACC Tournament may indicate its fate.

Championship: Likely No. 1 seed Northwestern

Somehow, this might be Syracuse’s most optimal shot to win since the first round, having no exposure to Navy and already losing to Maryland and North Carolina.

No. 4 seed Johns Hopkins, No. 5 seed Stony Brook and No. 8 seed Colorado are dangerous forces on the left side of the bracket. There’s also intimidating unseeded foes like Florida, Boston College and Yale. But none compare to Northwestern.

The Wildcats were a clumsy team at the start of the year, nearly falling to Stony Brook, losing to Colorado and Ohio State by one score and, of course, succumbing to the Orange in a 9-6 loss, anchored by Guzik’s sock trick.

Since falling to the Buckeyes in mid-March, NU’s undefeated, ending Maryland’s winning streak and beating it in the Big Ten Tournament Championship. Its magnum opus was handing the Tar Heels their first loss since 2024.

When you have Madison Taylor, a Tewaaraton finalist alongside Humphrey, you’re in secure hands. The senior broke the NCAA single-season goals record last year with 109 and has 80 in 2026. But her worst game of the season came against SU, when she had one garbage-time point.

The remainder of Northwestern is constructed with two players over 30 points and depends heavily on its defense, which surrenders single-digit goals per game.

There’s no doubt Syracuse can compete with the Wildcats given its regular-season statement. The Orange are equipped to handle a one-dimensional attack, swarming Taylor like they did in March. The challenge is navigating the gauntlet to arrive here.

Published on May 7, 2026 at 12:23 am
Contact Jason: jaglick@syr.edu | @jason_glick