4 reasons to be encouraged by SU men’s basketball 3-1 ACC start
After losing its Atlantic Coast Conference opener against Clemson, Syracuse has rattled off three straight wins against Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Florida State. Zoe Xixis | Asst. Photo Editor
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Heading into Atlantic Coast Conference play, Syracuse was in a precarious spot. The Orange finished 9-4 in nonconference play but didn’t play their best basketball.
SU had three chances in the Players Era Festival to secure a marquee win, yet it went 0-3 in a crucial missed opportunity. Naturally, Syracuse responded with a massive Quad 1 win over Tennessee in its ensuing game.
The Orange’s final five games before ACC play were, on paper, supposed to be easy, but they were upset by Hofstra, while three of their four wins were fairly unconvincing. Of course, a key reason for those shortcomings was Donnie Freeman’s nine-game absence due to a right foot injury.
In his return in the ACC opener against Clemson, the star sophomore nearly willed Syracuse to a win, but it fell just short. Since the loss, the Orange have rattled off three straight victories over Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh and Florida State. They’re now one of seven teams in the ACC to have a record above .500 in conference play.
Here are four reasons to be encouraged with Syracuse (12-5, 3-1 Atlantic Coast) four games into ACC play:
Donnie Freeman
In the words of Florida State head coach Luke Loucks, the Freeman kid is pretty good. Here’s a look at his numbers in his four games since returning from injury:
Yeah, he’s pretty good.
Though the Orange have other talented offensive players, they struggled when Freeman was injured because they lacked an alpha scorer. So long as Freeman is healthy, that won’t be a concern.
Even with Freeman leading the Orange in %shots (28.5%) — a KenPom metric that measures a percentage of a team’s shots taken while a player is on the court — he’s also the team leader in true shooting percentage (65.8%). That means Freeman is taking a lot of shots and scoring extremely efficiently.
If Freeman were qualified, his TS% would be the fifth-best in the ACC. Meanwhile, his 20.4 points per game would be tied for fourth-highest in the conference. SU has a chance to win — no matter the opponent — whenever Freeman is on the court because he can score just as much and just as efficiently as virtually every player in the ACC.
Additionally, according to EvanMiya’s defensive BPR metric, Freeman (2.63, 98th percentile) is SU’s best defender.
In the nine games Freeman was out, SU went 5-4. In the eight he’s played, the Orange are 7-1.
So long as Freeman stays on the court, Syracuse will always have a chance.
Improving metrics
Nowadays, metrics mean a great deal come Selection Sunday.
“It’s the way it is now,” head coach Adrian Autry said in October. “The game has changed. That’s why it’s so hard to make the tournament. Because of the numbers and how everything shifts.”
Here’s how the Orange stack so far by three metrics:
KenPom — No. 60
EvanMiya — No. 58
NET Rankings — No. 65
As it stands right now, that’s not good enough to make the NCAA Tournament. However, there has been a vast improvement over the last week.
Following the loss to Clemson, Syracuse was ranked No. 80 by KenPom and No. 90 on the NET Rankings. So seeing where the Orange are now, relative to where they were, is an especially encouraging sign.
Especially when considering what’s to come …
Great opportunities await
Fourteen games are remaining on Syracuse’s regular season schedule. Here’s a look at how they stack by Quad opportunities:
Quad 1 — 8
Quad 2 — 3
Quad 3 — 3
Quad 4 — 0
For those who don’t know how this works, the NET Rankings split each matchup into one of four buckets (Quad 1, 2, 3 and 4). Quad 1 is the highest-value win, earned by beating a top-ranked opponent in the NET Rankings, while Quad 4 is the lowest-value victory.
More than half of SU’s remaining games are, at the moment, slated to be Quad 1 opportunities. This presents a double-edged sword.
Winning the majority of these games would do wonders for the Orange’s March Madness resume, while a poor record could be one of the first reasons they’re left on the outside of the bubble. So far, Syracuse is 1-4 in Quad 1 games.
That’s not to say the Orange need to be perfect in Quad 1 play — even going .500 the rest of the way would likely be seen as a win. The margin for error in Quad 2 games narrows because wins do little to help, but losses hurt more than they do in Quad 1 situations.
At this point, especially with a Quad 3 loss against Hofstra, it could be difficult for SU to overcome another Quad 3 or 4 game.
Ilyan Sarech | Design Editor
There’s still a lot to be desired
So far, it could be argued only three of Syracuse’s players are close to their ceilings: Freeman, William Kyle III and Tyler Betsey. Freeman, of course, is averaging 20.4 points. Kyle is averaging 9.8 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. And Betsey leads the Orange with a 41.1% 3-point percentage while averaging 8.4 points.
Other than that, there’s a lot to be desired, even while there’s been more good than bad. The first starts with J.J. Starling, whose scoring average has dipped from 17.8 last year to 11.3 this year. The good news, though, is his EvanMiya DPR has more than doubled from last year, while he’s also scoring more efficiently. However, if Starling could tap more into his scoring prowess, he and Freeman could be one of the most dominant offensive duos in the conference.
Oregon State transfer Nate Kingz has also fit in well, especially on the defensive end, but he’s failing to do what Syracuse brought him in to do — make 3-pointers. His percentage sits at 31.0%, and if he can get that clip closer to the 44.6% he had last year, the Orange’s offensive ceiling will drastically increase.
The biggest transfer acquisition, Naithan George, has also had his ups and downs. Notably, he’s had 24 assists over SU’s last two wins. However, he’s averaging just under five turnovers per game in ACC play. Additionally, his scoring average has dipped from 12.3 last season at Georgia Tech to 10.3 thus far.
Finally, like most freshmen, Kiyan Anthony and Sadiq White Jr. still have room to grow. Currently, Anthony is SU’s worst player by EvanMiya BPR, and his TS% is the second-worst on the team behind Starling. As for White, he’s given SU great energy at times, but he hasn’t really received the minutes to be a key difference maker since Freeman returned from injury.
