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After snapping its four-game losing streak with an 86-72 home win over Notre Dame — where Donnie Freeman surprisingly came off the bench — on Saturday, Syracuse begins its stretch of eight consecutive Quad 1 and 2 games against North Carolina in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels slot in No. 25 in the NET Rankings, making this a Quad 1 game for SU.

Tipping off at 7 p.m., the game will be televised on ESPN as the first leg of its “Big Monday” programming. Riding a three-game winning streak heading into Monday’s matchup, UNC is projected as a No. 6 seed in Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology.

While Syracuse’s March Madness hopes are near the gutter, it has plenty of chances to boost its resume, starting with a win over the Tar Heels. Alongside SU’s victory against Tennessee earlier this season, third-year head coach Adrian Autry’s best win since taking the helm is when SU upset then-No. 7 UNC at home on Feb. 13, 2024. It marked the Orange’s first win against an AP Top 10 team since 2019, and remains their only such win since then.

With North Carolina ranked No. 14, SU won’t have a chance to notch a top-10 win. Though at this point, that doesn’t matter too much as Autry is chasing wins, period, in a potential make-or-break season.

Here’s everything to know before the Orange (13-9, 4-5 ACC) squares off against the No. 14 Tar Heels (17-4, 5-3 ACC):

All-time series

North Carolina leads 18-7.

Last time they played

Despite once trailing by 11 points in the second half, Syracuse cut its deficit down to two in the final minute against UNC at home on Feb. 15, 2025. However, the Orange couldn’t complete the comeback, falling 88-82 for their 10th ACC loss of the season.

Eddie Lampkin Jr. registered a game-high 26 points and 11 rebounds, while Starling poured in 20 of his 22 points in the second half. The loss crept SU closer to the ACC Tournament’s bubble, where it was the No. 14 seed before bowing out against SMU in the second round.

KenPom odds

Syracuse has an 18% chance of winning, with a projected score of 82-72.

The Tar Heel report

A season after UNC squeaked into the NCAA Tournament as an 11-seed and became a first-round exit, the only prominent player from that squad still in Chapel Hill is guard Seth Trimble.

Elliot Cadeau (Michigan), Ian Jackson (St. John’s), Ven Allen-Lubin (NC State) and Jalen Washington (Vanderbilt) entered the transfer portal after the season. Meanwhile, Drake Powell, RJ Davis and Jae’Lyn Withers are playing professionally.

To replenish his roster, fifth-year head coach Hubert Davis brought in one of the top freshmen classes in the country, headlined by projected NBA Draft lottery pick Caleb Wilson and Luka Bogavac. Additionally, Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar has become one of the best big men in the nation, while Kyan Evans (Colorado State) and Jarin Stevenson (Alabama) have become quality role players.

Like Autry, Davis has dealt with hot-seat chatter throughout this season, but UNC’s recent three-game winning streak has helped quiet some of that noise. North Carolina reached the National Championship game in Davis’ first season at the helm and has made two of the last three NCAA Tournaments.

This year’s Tar Heels are one of the best offensive teams in the country, ranking No. 18 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. They’re not great from beyond the arc, making 34.1% of their 3-pointers (which ranks 170th nationally), but they rank 21st in the country with a 58.5% 2-point percentage.

While UNC doesn’t have an alpha ball handler — its leading assister is Evans at 3.0 per game, though six players average at least two — it turns the ball over (13.6%) at the 13th-lowest rate in college basketball.

Defensively, North Carolina ranks 53rd in adjusted efficiency. The Tar Heels’ calling card is suppressing efficiency inside the arc: opponents shoot just 43.8% on 2-pointers (fifth-lowest nationally) and are pushed into long twos, with an average shot distance of 7.5 feet from the basket — the fourth-longest mark in the country.

How Syracuse beats North Carolina

UNC’s two best players are Wilson and Veesar, who stand 6-foot-10 and 7-foot, respectively. Both are averaging near doubles, with Wilson averaging 20.0 points and 9.9 rebounds and Veesaar notching 16.8 points and 9.0 rebounds.

Both players are taller than anyone in SU’s rotation, as William Kyle III and Freeman are both 6-foot-9. As the height discrepancy may suggest, UNC’s 40.0 rebounds rank fourth in the ACC, while the Orange place 15th with 35.2.

Combined with how good the Tar Heels are both offensively and defensively inside the arc, Syracuse must at least keep the rebounding margin close. Meanwhile, the Orange’s separator could come from 3-point shooting.

Nate Kingz is coming off a career-high 28 points, and his five 3-pointers showcased that he’s becoming the 3-point threat Syracuse envisioned. If Kingz stays hot, and SU can get any of Tyler Betsey, J.J. Starling, Naithan George or Freeman going from deep, it’s likely the best way they can secure a potential upset.

Stat to know: 2

There have only been two games this season where Wilson or Veesaar wasn’t UNC’s leading scorer. On Nov. 11, Bogavac led the way with 19 points in a win over Radford, while Trimble’s 22 led the Tar Heels in a 14-point loss against SMU on Jan. 3.

Meanwhile, the duo is among the best defensively in the ACC, as Veesaar’s EvanMiya Defensive BPR ranks third in the conference while Wilson’s ranks fourth. It’ll be a daunting task for SU, but it must try to limit at least one of Wilson or Veesaar.

Player to watch: Caleb Wilson, forward, No. 8

In one of the best recruiting classes in recent memory, Wilson ranked as 247Sports’ No. 8 prospect in the 2025 class. Thus far, he’s been better than advertised and is projected as the No. 4 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft by ESPN’s latest mock draft.

The forward’s 8.93 BPR ranks 20th nationally and slots in third in the ACC, trailing only Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba. If all goes as it’s trending, Wilson will become the Tar Heels’ 11th player in the last decade to become a first-round selection in the NBA Draft.

Published on February 1, 2026 at 8:48 pm
Contact Justin: justingirshon@gmail.com | @JustinGirshon