What to know before Syracuse faces No. 18 Virginia
Syracuse basketball will face a ranked opponent on the road for the second time this week when it plays No. 17 Virginia on Saturday. Leonardo Eriman | Senior Staff Photographer
Get the latest Syracuse news delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our sports newsletter here.
Syracuse will face a ranked opponent on the road for the second time this week when it takes on No. 18 Virginia Saturday. That game came five days after the Orange fell 87-77 to No. 14 North Carolina, when they trailed by as many as 32 points in the Dean E. Smith Center.
SU and UVA will tipoff at 12 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on ESPN. The Cavaliers are projected as a No. 5 seed for the NCAA Tournament on ESPN’s latest bracketology and rank 17th in the NET Rankings.
The contest will be Syracuse’s seventh Quad 1 game this season; it’s 1-5 in such games this year and 4-22 throughout Adrian Autry’s tenure. Despite SU’s loss in Chapel Hill, it remained No. 71 in the NET Rankings, and its KenPom ranking went up one spot to No. 69.
Nonetheless, the Orange’s March Madness resume is still “Not Close,” per EvanMiya, and they’ll need a nearly flawless end of the season to snap their four-year NCAA Tournament drought.
In a must-win game for Syracuse (13-10, 4-6 ACC), here’s everything to know before it faces No. 18 Virginia (19-3, 8-2 ACC):
All-time series
Virginia leads 14-7.
Last time they played
To conclude a disappointing regular season for both programs, Syracuse defeated Virginia 84-70 in the JMA Wireless Dome on March 8, 2025. Eddie Lampkin Jr. led SU with 25 points and 10 rebounds, while Lucas Taylor and Jyáre Davis each added 15 points.
Following the contest, the Orange and Cavaliers each bowed out in the second round of the ACC Tournament.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 13% chance of winning, with a projected score of 80-67.
The Cavaliers report
After legendary head coach Tony Bennett surprisingly retired a month before the 2024-25 season, Virginia tapped Ron Sanchez as its interim head coach. UVA then went 15-17 under Sanchez before hiring Ryan Odom to become its next coach.
The Cavaliers completely overhauled their coaching staff and roster, which has helped them return to the top of the ACC. Like Bennett-led teams in the past, UVA boasts a slow-paced, highly efficient offense and a stifling defense.
Virginia owns the nation’s 17th-best KenPom adjusted offensive efficiency, playing at a pace that ranks 276th nationally in adjusted tempo. Defensively, the Cavaliers boast the 21st-best KenPom defensive efficiency, and hold their opponents to an average possession length of 18.6 seconds — one of the highest marks in the country.
Helped by its gritty style, UVA’s 68.3 points allowed per game is the second-fewest in the ACC. On the offensive end, Odom’s squad’s 83.3 points per game ranks sixth in the conference.
The Cavaliers’ biggest offensive strength is their rebounding, as their 40.0% offensive rebounding percentage ranks third in the country. Defensively, like North Carolina, Virginia ranks top 10 in opponents’ average 2-point distance (7.1 feet) and block rate (15.9%).
How Syracuse beats Virginia
The Orange must move the ball significantly better than they did against UNC to have a chance against the Cavaliers. SU’s seven assists were tied for a season low, which played a role in its mediocre 6-of-18 3-point showing.
If Syracuse reverts to the isolation ball it sometimes gets caught up in, Virginia’s hounding interior defense could limit the Orange to one of their worst offensive performances of the season. Because of how good the Cavaliers’ interior defense is, 3-point shooting is likely the best way for SU to get its offense going.
If any grouping of Nate Kingz, Tyler Betsey, Naithan George, J.J. Starling or Donnie Freeman can open up the 3-point line, it might open up the rest of the floor and keep UVA’s defense on its heels. However, it’s important to note Virginia’s 30.3% 3-point percentage allowed is the 38th-best in the country, and Syracuse’s 33.7% clip from beyond the arc places 195th.
Stat to know: 0
Before the season, nobody in Virginia’s rotation had ever played a collegiate minute with anyone else on the roster. For the most part, Odom’s first roster has mainly consisted of freshmen and portal additions who transferred up to the Power 4 level.
San Francisco transfer Malik Thomas and Toledo transfer Sam Lewis are UVA’s second and fourth-highest scorers, while freshmen Thijs De Ridder and Chance Mallory are first and third.
Meanwhile, freshman Johann Grunloh is the Cavaliers’ leading rebounder and BYU transfer Dallin Hall leads them in assists.
Player to watch: Chance Mallory, guard, No. 2
Though he’s yet to start a game this year, Mallory is UVA’s highest-ranked player by EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating. His 7.82 mark is the sixth-best in the ACC, trailing only Duke’s Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba, UNC’s Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar and NC State’s Quadir Copeland.
Mallory’s 10.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game across 25 minutes might not jump off the table, but the freshman ranks in the 96th percentile for defense, 96th percentile for court impact and 98th percentile for playmaking, per EvanMiya. For four consecutive games, the Charlottesville native has scored in double figures.
