Analyzing Syracuse’s ACC Tournament outlook with 4 games left
With four games remaining in the regular season, Syracuse would need a monumental shift, plus an ACC Tournament run, to break its four-year NCAA Tournament drought. Tara Deluca | Asst. Photo Editor
Get the latest Syracuse news delivered right to your inbox. Subscribe to our sports newsletter here.
DURHAM, N.C. — Syracuse’s third season under Adrian Autry has just four regular-season games remaining. The Orange recently knocked off Cal and SMU — two teams ahead of it in the Atlantic Coast Conference standings — but fell in crushing fashion to the league’s expected No. 1 seed.
Last year, Autry’s second season in charge, SU barely scraped by to make the ACC Tournament after the conference expanded with Cal, Stanford and SMU but kept its conference tournament to 15 teams.
With four games to play, Syracuse is in a more comfortable position. The Orange are already one win away from tying its total from a year ago in conference play. However, the stakes couldn’t be higher. It’s apparent by now that SU must make a deep ACC Tournament run to have a chance at making March Madness and continuing the Autry tenure.
With four games to play in the regular season, here’s everything to know about Syracuse’s ACC Tournament outlook:
Where the Orange currently stand
Entering Tuesday’s contests, Syracuse currently sits at the No. 11 seed in the ACC. The positioning could fluctuate greatly over the season’s final two weeks and change. SMU, Cal, Virginia Tech and Syracuse each have six wins, while Florida State and Stanford are close behind with five each.
A two-game gap sits between Louisville and SMU, the No. 7 and No. 8 seeds. This means the Orange likely would be at the maximum a No. 8 seed in the ACC Tournament. Syracuse holds a four-game lead in the win column over the first team out, Boston College. However, the Eagles have played two less games and hold a tiebreaker over the Orange due to the upset win on Jan. 17.
Based on KenPom, SU is predicted to lose its next three games versus North Carolina, Wake Forest and Louisville before ending the year with a win over Pitt. This would place the Orange at 7-11 in ACC play, and most likely in the 10-13 seed range. The conference’s top nine teams receive at least a first round bye.
Last season, Syracuse earned the No. 14 seed with a 7-13 record — the ACC eliminated two conference games in the 2025-26 season to build nonconference strength. The league’s nine-13 seeds were all 8-12, creating parity in the first round as SU knocked off No. 11 seed Florida State. This year could look similar for the ACC Tournament opening round. The Orange haven’t produced their best season, but at this point, they’d need a monumental collapse to miss the conference tournament.
Syracuse’s ACC Tournament history
Syracuse is 6-10 in the ACC Tournament over 11 appearances. Under Autry, the Orange are 1-2. SU captured five Big East Tournament championships between 1981 and 2006.
The furthest the Orange have gone in the ACC Tournament is the quarterfinals. In 2019, SU beat Pitt and lost to the Zion Williamson Duke team. In 2021, Syracuse defeated NC State in the second round and then lost to No. 1 seed Virginia in the quarterfinals. A year later, the Orange crushed Florida State in the second round but lost to Duke in the quarterfinals without Buddy Boeheim.
Last year, Syracuse defeated No. 11 seed Florida State before falling to No. 6 seed SMU. The Orange pulled off the upset in the first round but ran out of fire in the back-to-back as the Mustangs pulled away for a 20-point win.
To put it simply, Syracuse has never produced success in the ACC Tournament. Of course, teams like NC State in 2024 — the No. 10 seed — ran the table and earned the conference’s automatic bid after an improbable run. But the Orange would have to do something they’ve never done before to even reach the discussion of doing the same as the Wolfpack. A 6-10 ACC Tournament record and current 1-7 Quad 1 record says SU won’t come close.
Who SU could play
While the Orange are still in position to reach a top nine seed and earn a first-round bye, it’s unlikely they do so. Syracuse would take on No. 14 seed Wake Forest if the conference tournament were to start today. The Orange and Demon Deacons are scheduled to face off in Winston-Salem on Feb. 28.
Other probable matchups for Syracuse are Florida State, Stanford and Notre Dame. The Orange defeated the Seminoles 94-86 on Jan. 13. On Jan. 31, SU took down Notre Dame. Both wins came at home. Facing the Cardinal would be very intriguing as they’re the only team Syracuse doesn’t face in regular season play.
If the Orange were to win their opening matchup, they’d face a team fighting on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament or well on their way to March Madness. The No. 11 seed faces the No. 6 seed, and North Carolina currently sits in the position. A half game ahead of the Tar Heels is NC State, and tied with them is Louisville.
Syracuse needs to make a generational run in the ACC Tournament, and if it were to then knock off one of those teams, it would take on the No. 3 seed. That would be Virginia, Clemson or Miami, as Duke looks en route to locking up the No. 1 seed. The path is not impossible. However, it’s certainly improbable for the Orange to catch fire on this grand of a stage.
