Analyzing SU women’s basketball’s postseason outlook with 3 games left
Syracuse is a projected No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament with three games left. Our beat writer analyzes SU’s case for making the dance. Matthew Crisafulli | Staff Photographer
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Felisha Legette-Jack never wants to look too far ahead. Inside the Syracuse locker room, Legette-Jack’s mindset is to “be where your feet are.” Her players know this team is close to going to the NCAA Tournament, a stage 10 of its 15 members have never graced.
But the key, Legette-Jack said, is just “winning the day.”
At this time last year, the Orange had to live game-by-game. An Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament miracle run was the Orange’s only possible chance of making noise in March.
Now, Legette-Jack and her squad are positioned incredibly well for an at-large bid to The Big Dance, regardless of what happens in Syracuse’s final three regular-season games. Still, if SU can win each day — and its final three ACC games — it could boost its seeding significantly.
Here’s how the Orange (21-5, 11-4 ACC) stand with three games remaining — and what they still have left to gain.
Syracuse currently sits at a projected No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, per ESPN’s Bracketology, though CBS Sports and HerHoopStats have SU as a No. 8 and No. 10, respectively.
The Orange are also currently the No. 3 seed in the ACC. Although, North Carolina and NC State — which sit fourth and fifth — have played one less game than SU. As it stands, the No. 3 spot would guarantee Syracuse a bye to the ACC Tournament Quarterfinals. But if the Orange drop below the No. 4 seed in the standings, they’d only get a bye to the second round.
Syracuse has fluctuated between a No. 8 and a No. 9 seed in ESPN’s NCAA Tournament projections since mid January. That’d leave them to play a squad of similar standing in the first round before a potential second round matchup against a No. 1 seed.
Last Sunday’s win over Clemson should virtually seal Syracuse’s spot in The Big Dance. Comfortably losing their final three games and an early exit from the ACC Tournament would be the only way the Orange might miss out. But even in that worst-case scenario, Syracuse’s 21-9 overall record might still be enough to get into March Madness as a No. 11 or 12 seed.
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Based on Syracuse’s record alone, it might seem like a top-8 seed is virtually a guarantee. But lacking a signature win has hurt the Orange.
On paper, Syracuse’s best win is a road victory over Virginia in January, where Laila Phelia ignited for a career-high 38 points. So far, it’s SU’s only win in its five Quad 1 opportunities. The four losses came to then-No. 6 Michigan in November, Duke in December, North Carolina in January and then-No. 6 Louisville Feb. 8. Three of those four losses were by at least 19 points.
But Syracuse’s success against just about everyone else has kept it afloat. The Orange are 5-1 in Quad 2 games, with wins over Utah, Cal, Stanford, Miami and most recently Clemson. They also haven’t slipped up against any lesser squads, winning 15 games across Quad 3 and 4.
That gives Syracuse’s resume a good foundation. It should be enough to get it into the tournament, but that’s not where SU’s goals end — it wants to make noise when it gets there.
This final stretch will serve more as a postseason tune-up to see if the Orange can hang with top opposition. Syracuse gets two Quad 1 opportunities on the road against NC State on Sunday and against Notre Dame on Feb. 26, which both rank top-25 in the NET rankings.
Then, SU heads home to face Boston College in its regular-season finale March 1. That’s as close to a guaranteed win as you can get in Power Five basketball. The Orange obliterated the lowly Eagles 93-59 a few weeks ago on the road and should have no problem replicating that result at the JMA Wireless Dome.
If Syracuse can beat both NC State or Notre Dame, it could rise as high as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the NCAA Tournament and likely lock up a top-4 seed for the conference tournament.
If SU can even get one win over those two Quad 1 opponents, it’d likely stay as a No. 8 or No. 9 seed in March Madness, but could secure a second-round bye in the ACC Tournament. It’d also be a major sign it can compete in hostile environments against great teams. Otherwise, it’ll have to wait until the ACC Tournament to prove that.
Perhaps the most likely scenario from the final three games, though, is two road losses to the Wolfpack and Fighting Irish and a home win over BC. In that case, Syracuse would likely lack the Quad 1 victories to push it much higher than a No. 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and it’d likely fall to fifth or sixth in the ACC.
Still, Legette-Jack said her team is just fighting for a chance to compete. To do that, they can’t really look big-picture. All that should matter is taking care of business each day.
That starts Sunday against NC State. The Wolfpack present a challenge, but also an opportunity for Syracuse to cement its place in March Madness, and perhaps secure a top-4 seed in the ACC.
And if the Orange do indeed win that day — as well as each one between now and March — they’ll have the chance to win something more: their first national title in program history.
