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resh off the worst loss of the Adrian Autry era, Syracuse will look for a bounce-back win Saturday when it hosts No. 16 North Carolina. The game will tip off at 1 p.m. and be nationally televised on ABC.
Before the 101-64 shellacking by the No. 3 Blue Devils, SU injected a small dose of life to its NCAA Tournament outlook with consecutive wins over California and SMU. Of course, that was preceded by the Orange losing six of their previous seven games — all but eliminating them from contention for an at-large March Madness bid.
With four games remaining, including three Quad 1 opportunities, Syracuse isn’t dead yet. But with a 1-7 record in Quad 1 games, a 3-3 record in Quad 2 games and Quad 3 losses to Hofstra and Boston College, SU will need to be nearly perfect down the stretch of the regular season and the ACC Tournament.
That would need to begin with a win over the Tar Heels, who could be without star freshman Caleb Wilson for a third straight game with a fractured left hand. Since beating SU in Chapel Hill, UNC has upset Duke and beaten Pittsburgh, but it fell to Miami and NC State.
Here’s everything to know before No. 16 North Carolina (20-6, 8-5 ACC) faces Syracuse (15-12, 6-8 ACC):
All-time series
North Carolina leads 19-7.
Last time they played
Syracuse’s 87-77 loss in Chapel Hill on Feb. 2 was deceiving. While the Orange only lost by 10, the game was essentially over by halftime, and they trailed by as many as 32 points midway through the second half.
Wilson and UNC center Henri Veesaar combined for 39 points and 20 rebounds, while Donnie Freeman led all scorers with 23 points. More notoriously, though, Carmelo Anthony commented “SMFH” on a SU men’s basketball post mid-game.
KenPom odds
Syracuse has a 38% chance of winning, with a projected score of 78-75.
The Tar Heel report
Even if Wilson doesn’t play Saturday, UNC is loaded with talent. Per EvanMiya’s Bayesian Performance Rating, Veesaar is the fourth-highest rated player in the ACC behind just Cameron Boozer, Patrick Ngongba and Wilson. Behind their stars, the Tar Heels have six quality role players in Jarin Stevenson, Seth Trimble, Luka Bogavac, Jonathan Powell, Kyan Evans and Derek Dixon.
Outside of Wilson and Veesaar, Trimble, a homegrown senior, is the biggest name. His 13.9 points per game place third on UNC, and he had the biggest moment of his career when he hit a game-winning 3-pointer to beat Duke.
While a triple was North Carolina’s highlight of the year, its dominance comes from inside the arc. As was on display when UNC hosted Syracuse, its height and interior dominance — especially when Wilson and Veesaar are on the court together — stand out. Per KenPom, the Tar Heels’ 57% 2-point percentage ranks 40th in the nation and their 38.8 rebounds per game rank 4th in the ACC.
As good as North Carolina is offensively inside the arc, it’s even better on the defensive end. Opponents shoot just 45.2% on 2-pointers (11th-lowest nationally) and are pushed into long 2s, with an average shot distance of 7.4 feet from the basket — the 4th-longest mark in the country.
How Syracuse beats UNC
For the Orange to pull out a win, it’s more about them performing well than slowing North Carolina down. Against Duke, William Kyle III was arguably Syracuse’s only player who showed up.
Freeman, who’s had his moments over the last few weeks, hasn’t looked the part of a future NBA Draft pick lately. Meanwhile, J.J. Starling, who SU built its team around alongside Freeman, is shooting 5-of-19 from the floor across the Orange’s last two games.
Recently, there’s been a lot more good than bad with Naithan George and Nate Kingz, but they both didn’t stand out on Monday in Cameron Indoor Stadium.
If Syracuse can get at least three of its five starters to click, it should have a fighting chance. Anything more, and a bonus from its bench, makes this a realistic game it could win.
Stat to know: 5-23
Over the last two seasons, Syracuse is 5-23 against teams ranked within KenPom’s top 80 teams. With the Tar Heels slotting in as KenPom’s No. 34 team, the Orange will look to improve that figure to a still extremely underwhelming 6-23.
All five of SU’s such wins are this year, coming against Tennessee, Florida State, Notre Dame, Cal and SMU. For comparison’s sake, the Orange beat eight top 80 KenPom teams in Autry’s first season at the helm, including the best win of his tenure against North Carolina.
Player to watch: Henri Veesaar, center, No. 13
After serving as a role player during Arizona’s runs to the Sweet 16 in 2024 and 2025, Veesaar entered the transfer portal. The center has started every game he’s played in thus far for UNC, averaging 16.4 points and 9.0 rebounds while shooting 61.5% from the field and an impressive 44.8% from 3-point range.
Like Wilson, though, Veesaar has missed the Tar Heels’ last two games. The junior was dealing with an injury in his lower extremities before coming down with the flu. Still, head coach Hubert Davis said Veesaar was “getting much better” Monday, even though he missed North Carolina’s game Tuesday against NC State.
Published on February 19, 2026 at 12:01 am